![]() ![]() When inflation was more than 10% a year, interest rates on three-month Treasuries was near 15%. This chart shows inflation (the red line) and interest rates on Treasury bills (the green line). That can be seen in the chart below, which highlights the late 1970s and early 1980s. If the Fed fails, inflation can take hold. The reality is that Fed policy is among the most important factors affecting retirement for many Americans. I feel like this is largely an academic exercise for many investors. The primary tool for influencing prices and employment has long been the interest rates the Fed controls. In trying to attain maximum employment with stable prices, the Fed is looking for the point where unemployment is low, but not too low. (See also: Why This Latest Fed Cut Is Different) Low unemployment should lead to high inflation, and high unemployment should lower inflation. The idea is that inflation and unemployment move in opposite directions, exhibiting what economists and mathematicians call an inverse relationship. This relationship is quantified with the Phillips curve. This mandate, in effect, tells the Fed to do everything possible to preserve the American dream.Įconomists have long believed there is a close relationship between employment and prices. The Fed operates under a mandate from Congress to “promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” The Fed’s thinking is nearly impossible to understand, but the Fed’s goals are relatively straightforward. You can get in on the action now by following this link. This “Friday phenomenon” could generate returns of up to 100% or more… in the next 3-10 days… and continue to pay out… week after week. This is going to be big… Jim fink just released the details of his 310F trade. Weird trade doubles your money in 3 days? Traders watch the news, largely consisting of a reporter standing in front of a building saying things like, “There’s a meeting going on inside.” Analysts will try to explain what members of the Fed were thinking at the meeting. For years, CNBC has used the building as the backdrop for reporters when the Fed meets - as they were yesterday.Įach time the Fed meets, traders anxiously wit to see what happens. I’m reminded of this every six weeks as the Federal Reserve meets and Wall Street’s attention turns towards the Eccles Building in Washington, D.C.
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